Polymarket and Kalshi traders are pricing three simultaneous tech IPOs at valuations that would each individually surpass Berkshire Hathaway’s $1.03 trillion market cap on their first day of public trading, according to CNBC.

SpaceX officially filed its S-1 with the SEC on Wednesday to list on the Nasdaq. The same day, reports circulated that OpenAI plans to file for an IPO confidentially as early as Friday. Anthropic, approaching its first profitable quarter, is expected to follow.

The Numbers

Polymarket traders put 56% odds on SpaceX closing its first trading day above $2.2 trillion. The company was valued at $1.25 trillion in February and reported $18.67 billion in 2025 revenue.

OpenAI draws 65% odds of ending its first public day above $1.4 trillion. Its last private valuation was $852 billion, with $13.1 billion in 2025 revenue, according to CNBC.

Anthropic carries 47% odds of closing above $1.8 trillion on debut. The company is reportedly in talks for a new funding round at a $900 billion valuation and is pacing for a second-quarter profit at nearly $11 billion in annualized revenue.

Kalshi traders now see 92% odds that OpenAI files for an IPO in 2026, with 84% odds it files before Anthropic and 60% odds it files before October.

Revenue vs. Valuation

The gap between revenue and expected market cap is striking. Deutsche Bank analyst Adrian Cox noted that Berkshire Hathaway generated over $350 billion in annual revenue last year. SpaceX produced $18.67 billion. OpenAI produced $13.1 billion. Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI is profitable, according to CNBC.

Anthropic is the closest to profitability among the three, pacing for its first profitable quarter in Q2 2026. But the implied price-to-revenue multiples remain far above historical norms for tech IPOs.

Absorption Capacity

Cox pushed back on concerns that the market cannot absorb multiple trillion-dollar debuts in sequence. “They would slot into a U.S. stock market worth about $70 trillion overall,” he wrote, per CNBC. “That is five times larger in nominal terms than it was even at the peak of the dot-com bubble in the late 1990s. At that time, there was an average of almost 500 IPOs a year, compared with about 120 this decade.”

Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI was dismissed on May 21, per CNBC, removing one potential friction point from OpenAI’s path to public markets.

What the Agent Ecosystem Is Watching

For companies building on top of OpenAI and Anthropic APIs, these IPOs carry direct implications. Public companies face quarterly earnings scrutiny that can shift API pricing, deprecation timelines, and partnership terms. The $80 billion AI startup revenue pool is already 89% concentrated in OpenAI and Anthropic. Public market pressure to defend margins could accelerate that concentration, or force both companies to compete on price to sustain growth narratives for public investors.