Nebius Group, the NVIDIA-backed AI cloud company traded on NASDAQ as NBIS, raised its 2026 contracted power outlook from 3 GW to more than 4 GW after reporting first-quarter results that showed revenue jumping 684% year over year to $399 million.
The numbers signal that demand for AI compute infrastructure, increasingly driven by autonomous agent workloads, is growing faster than even aggressive buildout targets can match.
The Scale of the Expansion
Nebius doubled its 2026 capex guidance to $20-25 billion, up from the prior $16-20 billion range. First-quarter capital expenditures alone reached approximately $2.5 billion, compared with $544 million a year earlier, according to Benzinga. The company reported an adjusted loss per share of 33 cents for Q1 2026.
At 4 GW of contracted power, Seeking Alpha analysis estimates potential annual recurring revenue of $36 billion, far exceeding current guidance of $3-4 billion. The analysis also projects 30% EBIT margins and $11 billion in EBIT at full 4 GW capacity, though this assumes complete utilization of contracted capacity.
The stock has appreciated roughly 1,000% from early 2025 lows and was trading at $193.90 as of late May, according to Benzinga.
Power Infrastructure as Bottleneck
To support the expansion, Nebius partnered with Bloom Energy to use fuel cell technology for clean power at its data centers. The first project, featuring 328 MW of installed capacity, is expected to be operational this year, according to Benzinga.
The partnership reflects a broader pattern: AI infrastructure companies are no longer constrained primarily by chip supply. Power availability, permitting, and clean energy requirements are becoming the binding constraints on data center buildout. Nebius is establishing a global footprint with a focus on clean energy solutions.
Analyst Consensus and Capital Risk
DA Davidson analyst Alexander Platt said the Q1 results highlighted “continued demand signals across customer demographics” and noted the contracted power outlook upgrade, according to Benzinga. Citigroup rates the stock Buy with a $287 target (raised May 15). DA Davidson carries a Neutral rating with a $250 target. Morgan Stanley rates Equal-Weight with a $144 target.
The split reflects genuine uncertainty. Seeking Alpha estimates the company needs an additional $4-5 billion capital raise to fund the expansion, which could dilute existing shareholders. The company currently carries no net debt, giving it flexibility but also highlighting how much external capital the buildout requires.
The Compute Scarcity Signal
For the agent ecosystem, Nebius’s expansion is less about one company’s stock price and more about what it reveals: compute capacity, not model access, is becoming the bottleneck for scaling autonomous agent deployments. As enterprises move from pilot agent projects to production workloads running continuously, the infrastructure demand shifts from burst inference to sustained, always-on compute. The companies building that capacity now are betting that the agent economy will need it. The capital markets, split between $144 and $287 price targets on the same stock, are still deciding whether that bet is right.