Shares of Chinese AI model developer Zhipu surged 33% on Monday after Wall Street banks raised their bets on Chinese AI companies in the wake of US export controls on Anthropic’s most advanced models.

Knowledge Atlas Technology, the Hong Kong-listed entity behind Zhipu, soared as much as 48% before paring gains, according to CNBC. The stock settled around HK$1,461 ($186), bringing Zhipu’s market capitalization to HK$489 billion.

JPMorgan and Bank of America Move Together

JPMorgan maintained its overweight rating on Zhipu and raised the price target to HK$1,400 from HK$950, citing model visibility and pricing power in a “fiercely contested market,” according to a Bloomberg report referenced by CNBC. The bank simultaneously downgraded Zhipu’s domestic rival MiniMax.

Bank of America initiated coverage on the same day with buy ratings on both companies, setting targets of HK$1,250 for Zhipu and HK$500 for MiniMax. BofA analysts wrote that China is positioned to capture a “substantial share” of the global AI market within the “value-for-money” segment, with Chinese models gaining traction as “cheap-and-capable performers” as US frontier pricing rises.

MiniMax shares rose 7.4%.

GLM-5.2 Timed to the Curbs

The rally followed a direct trigger: the Trump administration ordered Anthropic on Friday to suspend access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for any foreign national, including Anthropic’s own non-citizen employees.

On the same day, Zhipu announced GLM-5.2, its latest open-source model, would be released this week under an MIT license with no usage restrictions. The company framed the launch as a direct response: “Cutting-edge intelligence should not belong to only a few, nor should it be withdrawn at any time. It should be open, available, extensible and built to serve every developer.”

Preliminary community feedback indicates GLM-5.2 performs comparably to Claude Opus 4.7 in coding and long-horizon agentic tasks, according to Ellie Jiang, head of Asia internet and media research at Macquarie Capital, who maintained an “outperform” rating with a target of HK$1,221.4, as reported by CNBC.

The Talent Question

Zhipu has already raised cloud API prices by 8% to 17% alongside its GLM-5.1 launch in April, its second hike this year. The price increases signal demand strength rather than weakness: BofA analysts noted that “Zhipu’s premium reflects faster ARR growth, stronger talent density, public backing, and its lead in enterprise revenue exposure.”

The export controls have also intensified the AI talent debate. Peter Alexander, managing director at Z-Ben Advisors, estimated that roughly 40% of US-based AI engineers were born in China, and the latest directive effectively bars many from accessing the systems they helped build. “The very individuals who were responsible, perhaps not in whole but crucial, for creating the most powerful AI models in the world are now persona non grata,” Alexander wrote in a note cited by CNBC, warning of potential “brain flight” toward Chinese AI companies like DeepSeek and Moonshot AI.

The Pricing Arbitrage

Zhipu’s shares have surged more than tenfold since its January IPO. Both Zhipu and MiniMax are planning listings on China’s STAR Market in Shanghai.

For agent builders and enterprises evaluating model providers, the calculus has shifted. US export restrictions now create a direct trade-off: model capability on the Western side versus availability and cost on the Chinese side. When frontier access can be revoked by executive directive, supply chain diversification moves from a theoretical concern to an operational requirement.